Daniel Lubetzky

How bad is the situation for the Lebanese? This is how bad:

1. Hezbollah’s militia is destabilizing in and of itself – no State in History has ever been able to call itself a stable State if there is a non-State-controlled militia that challenges the authority of the State;
2. For years the UN and the world have indicated that all Lebanese militias had to disarm, in order to allow Lebanon to evolve into a vibrant integrated country; Hezbollah is the only militia that refused to turn in their arms and allow re-integration; even though Israel fully evacuated from Lebanese territory according to the UN and all observers, Hezbollah used its "struggle" against Israel as an excuse not to disarm;
3. Hezbollah continues to smuggle arms from Iran and Syria and send its fighters to train in Iran; it uses the Beirut airport with impunity, and effectively controlled it, along with a separate communications infrastructure;
4. The Siniora Government sought to prevent the continued smuggling of arms by firing the Airport manager that was following Hezbollah’s guidance.  It also sought to ban the separate communications network
5. Hezbollah responded with a semi-coup – attacks against other Lebanese and against Government ministries and employees.
6. The Lebanese Army stood by; now, in which country is it considered normal for the Army to be required to stay "neutral" when a militia initiates attacks against the Government? The Lebanese Army stood by because a) they are too weak against Hezbollah’s passions, training, and weapons; b) they sense in the winds that Hezbollah is becoming stronger and the ruling government is going to fall;
7. The gutsy Hezbollah shiite fighters give their lives to the Movement and will go to the streets or to wherever their admired leader Nasrallah sends them; the Westernized Sunni and Christian moderates on the other side would like to live a fun life and hang out in bars and restaurants, or pursue greater education in the US or Dubai, and they have no undying allegiances to their leaders;
8. Now the "compromise" to prevent further fighting cemented Hezbollah’s control of the airports and their communication network, as well as a change in the government laws; General Suleiman, the head of the Lebanese Army, who was once seen as the only possible candidate for President capable of being responsive to both sides, is increasingly seen as tilting to the Hezbollah side;
9. Iran and Syria have been emboldened by this development and will further invest in their proxy Hezbollah; Saudi Arabia, Egypt, other Arab states and the Unite States, seen as the counterbalance to the Iranians, do not have legitimacy on the street, or the stomach or roadmap to invest themselves into strengthening Lebanese civil society and investing in the people.
10. Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah has built a mythical reputation as a direct and straightforward and humble leader (it still confounds me how he achieve this, but he did), seen as a model in the Arab world, not just by Shiites loyal to him, but also by Palestinians and Sunnis across the Arab world;
11. The epicenter of struggle is now moving from Iraq to Lebanon; Iraq, even if stabilized, is already Shiite-controlled and significantly influenced by Iran; there is still hope the Iraqi Shiites will demand openess, stability, and progressive policies towards the world, in contrast to the Iranian regime’s apocalyptic totalitarian revolutionary zeal; but they are certainly not going to be any counterweight against Iran; now the threat is that Lebanon will become as oppressive and regressive as Iran;
12. This may be the most alarming development even for Israeli-Palestinian relations; the hope of a two-state agreement between Israel and Palestine is dimmed by the prospects of interference and destabilization from the North and from Iran, via Islamic Jihad and Hamas.  It is now far less likely that Hamas will agree not to to be a spoiler in the negotiations between Abbas and Olmert.  It sees it can become the Hezbollah of Palestine.
13. Lebanon’s dream, and with it the dream of a peaceful Middle East based on harmony, respect, tolerance, economic liberalization, democracy and openess, is in greater jeopardy than it has ever been.

Thomas Friedman wrote an interesting article on the Cold War between the US and Iran.  He writes:

When you have leverage, talk. When you don’t have leverage, get some — by creating economic, diplomatic or military incentives and pressures that the other side finds too tempting or frightening to ignore. That is where the Bush team has been so incompetent vis-à-vis Iran.

Here is the full article.

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Related to an issue I had blogged about 6 weeks ago, Daniel Henninger writes in the WSJ that Obama’s real vulnerability is not his past connection to the Reverend Wright but his simplistic formulas on Iran:

Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, collector of centrifuges, makes

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Hezbollah is training Iraqi militias in Iran, while we stand by.

In a very serious development, Hamas has passed an edict that any gathering of more than 20 citizens anywhere in Gaza must receive official written pre-approval.  This includes any gathering, even if non-political. This will of course intimidate ordinary citizens and civic groups.

The media has not yet reported on this worrisome impingement on the freedom of Palestinian citizens.  Iran’s regime created a repressive totalitarian state by ferreting out any and all freedoms to congregate or express oneself.  If Hamas gets away with this measure, it will start imposing other measures until it destroys any possibility of a democratic process to reunite Gaza and the West Bank, let alone for Palestinians in Gaza to vote on a possible two-state-solution referendum.

In sharp contrast to Carter, Israeli President Shimon Peres gave an important presentation to Foreign Journalists where he highlighted Iran’s proliferation threats to the world, and warned against appeasing Hamas. Peres also emphasized the imperative of developing new sources of energy as an environmental and geo-political imperative.  Here is a good article on it:

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Whatever your opinion on Jimmy Carter and his controversial trip to Syria to meet with President Assad and with Hamas leader Khaled Maashal, reading the report in Carter’s own words should be of value:

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You may be surprised to learn about some of what is happening in Gaza.  Read this letter:

Dear All,
Onevoice movement in the Gaza Strip expanded its campaign and organized its fifth Town Hall Meeting in the North of the Gaza Strip.
The Objective to introduce the Movement & gather support for the two states for two people notion.

The Participants about 60 activists from Jabalia refugee camp and Bait Lahia city.

Ezz started the meeting by introducing Onevoice Movement vision of Ending the Israeli military occupation which started in 1967, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel. Ezz then moved to the issue of not allowing other states in the region in particular Iran & Syria to dictate for us Palestinians what to do. Ezz talked about the importance of delivering a message to our President Mahmood Abbas telling him to move forward with the direct negotiation with the state of Israel and to reach at least by the end of 2008 a comprehensive framework agreement with Israel’s Prime Minister Olmert.

Moafaq talked about the need to abandon violence as a mean to resist the Israeli military occupation, and adopting nonviolent methods to resist the occupation. he also introduced the notion of imagining 2018 if Palestine and Israel reached a peace agremment in 2008. Moafaq went on saying that Palestine will not be a poor state, but rather a rich state since Palestine will generate money from the religious tourism and from natural resources such as the gas mines off the shores of Gaza cost.

The participant told us that this is the first time that they actually hear something like this in Gaza. Usually what they hear is enticement against Israel and calls for revenge, the audience congratulated us on our brave decision to continue our public activities in Gaza and the majority asked us if they can become active members of the movement.

We explained to the participants that this meeting and other like it are only the beginning, and we are planing on holding a massive gathering sometimes this summer. Also, we told the participant to check our website and to add their comments to it..

Today Sherazad Hamit and I were in the Bay Area to discuss OneVoice’s campaign for 2008 with several of our supporters.

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It sounds so crazy.  With growing climate change, planet earth as we know it is on the brink of a radical transformation that could endanger the very survival of the human race, if not at best require the most painful and radical adjustments for us all.

Why then would any rational human being want to stand in the way of finding solutions to prevent an epic catastrophe?

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