Resistance Trumps Religion, in the Arab Middle East

If you are struggling to understand why Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, both Shiite, are so popular among Arab masses from Egypt to Palestine and Saudi Arabia, where the predominant religion is Sunni, think of it through a different prism: the culture of Resistance.

The culture of Resistance trumps the schisms of religion, as well as other divisions like nationality, ethnicity, and political persuasion.

The Arab world has been so impregnated with an anti-West, anti-colonialist, anti-occupation, anti-invasion, anti-globalization, anti-Israel ethos, that anything or anyone who stands at the vanguard against these modern suppressors will be greeted with enthusiasm.

The challenge for the good of the Arab Middle East and the world at large is how to channel all of these very real frustrations, that have only been deepened by lack of political accountability and continued authoritarian rule seen as imposed by the West on the Arab population, into a constructive path for progress within the Arab Middle East and outside.

It is not an easy challenge to overcome.  If anyone figures it out, they will hold the key to progress and popularity.

At present, you either drive for revolution and cry against oppression in the name of "resistance", or you are part of the establishment and hence seen with suspicion by ordinary Arabs that are not part of the elite.

Great leaders like Palestinian Prime Minister Fayyad or Jordanian King Abdullah, who are bringing economic progress to the poor in their country, will have difficulty getting credit, because they are seen as agents of the West.

Democracy and other concepts that should ordinarily appeal to the human quest for freedom similarly have difficulty because they are seen as Western impositions, and part of a cultural colonization.

The Impact of The Olmert-Nasrallah Exchange

I already blogged about my instinctive misgivings with negotiating to exchange imprisoned terrorists for the bodies of fallen soldiers, as well as about the perspective from some Israelis on why it was the right thing to do.

Now that the painful exchange took place, as much as I heard from many Israeli friends how this part of the code that makes Israeli soldiers so dedicated - knowing they will never be left behind, I regret to bring more information to bear on why this was such a damaging act.

It is not just that it empowered Nasrallah and sent a signal to all would-be-enemies of Israel that they can kill any Israeli prisoners and still exchange the bodies for value.

It turns out that even moderate ordinary Palestinians were enveloped in the fever of Nasrallahic heroism, buying Hezbollah’s message.  A parade in Ramallah was held to celebrate the release of Samir Kundar, and all the messages addressed to President Abbas stated that the only thing that works with Israel is a strong position to FIGHT, as opposed to negotiate.  Palestinians were glued to Al-Manar TV, the Hezbollah station that is the scariest thing I’ve ever seen - pure propaganda, pure hatred.  The prisoner exchange was seen as a mythical victory for Nasrallah.

Addressing the Root of the Iranian Threat

I got the following email from Ziad Abdelnour, President of the US Committee for a Free Lebanon.  Ziad was born in Lebanon, and he does not parse any words.  While sometimes he is rough and undiplomatic, his clarity is necessary at times of politically correct ambiguity, as we’ve witnessed when addressing Iran and its quest to acquire nuclear weapons. 

Anyone who truly thinks the West can actually "negotiate" to get the Iranian regime to relinquish its quest is deluding themselves and has not been listening to what the Iranian Ayatollahs have been telling their people.  They play the West like a violin with embarassing protracted games designed to buy time, which is in their favor. 

The observation that you can pursue regime change or nuclear containment, but not both, is probably true.  But what is uncomfortable to face is the reality that the later is unlikely to yield any results.  Below is Ziad’s letter:

With or Without Nukes, Iran and its proxies Syria and Hizballah are a Mortal Threat

As President Bush’s term is coming to a close, Lebanon’s survival as a multi-ethnic, multi-denominational state is more than ever at stake.

Iran and Syria are quickly changing the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean, while the West and moderate Arab states appear almost paralyzed and the Lebanese State is nowhere to behave like a sovereign country but a province of Syria and Iran.  All what the Lebanese are concerned about nowadays is how much fun and how many tourists they will host this summer rather than ruthlessly dealing with the total political and economic chaos the country is facing; threatening its very existence.

BUT…. this is not about Lebanon, but about the U.S. presence in the Middle East, its diplomacy, and its allies.

Ever since taking the U.S. embassy staff hostage in 1979, the Islamist regime in Teheran has led an international spree of bombings, hijackings, and other terrorist attacks on Americans and Westerners. Now politicians and diplomats, who put up with Iranian aggression for years, are loudly promising to block Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.

On the campaign trail, for instance, our Presidential candidates debate how (i.e., with or without preconditions) they’d negotiate to dissuade Iran from pursuing a nuke–on the idea that without such a weapon in Iranian hands, everything will be hunky-dory.

A rational assessment of Iran would have to recognize that the mullahs in Teheran have been conducting a proxy war against America for at least a few decades. The inspiration for this war is Iran’s jihadist goal of imposing Islamic totalitarianism globally. Iran is a leading sponsor of jihadists and the self-identified role model for exporting its Islamic revolution to other countries. It is the sworn enemy of the West. We should take seriously its call to bring "Death to America!"–because it has already done so.

BUT….also in here, too many American diplomats and commentators refuse to judge Iran. Instead, they regard its past hostility as a string of disconnected crises, unrelated to Iran’s ideological agenda. They avoid naming the nature of the regime and behave as if its acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be the decisive event. But that particular weapon–despite its power–cannot be the whole story, since we don’t worry about other countries, such as France and Britain, having nukes. The rarely admitted difference is that the regime in Iran would eagerly press the launch button.

This fear-the-weapon-not-the-killer mentality refuses to understand the threat posed by Iran right now. This view holds that only the concrete facts about Iran’s arsenal have any practical significance, while its abstract, ideological goals and character can be disregarded with impunity. But whether Iran uses one nuke, or attacks with more conventional weapons, its victims are still dead.

Our leaders’ narrow concern with Iran’s nuclear capability cannot make the regime’s longstanding hostility to America go away. Americans should face the real character and conduct of the Iranian regime, before it is too late.

The United States must recognize that America does still have allies in the Middle East, especially when it comes to containing Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Sunni Arab Gulf states, as well as our European allies all understand what is at stake. Yet, to pursue a policy of Iran containment, the United States must make it clear that it will stand by its allies.

Washington therefore should immediately:

·     Design and implement a comprehensive policy that includes military, covert, economic, diplomatic, and public diplomacy components to decisively and quickly weaken and roll back Iran and Syria. They have assets and interests that can be frozen or confiscated. They also have officials and businessmen who travel throughout the world and should not be welcome anywhere as long as their policies remain disruptive in Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, and elsewhere. Any Lebanese, Syrian and Iranian officials or entity involved in financing, training, supplying, and facilitating terrorism, and specifically Hezbollah, should be placed on the visa boycott list starting with Bashar Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

· Work with the European allies so that they declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization, put it on the EU terrorism list, and freeze their economic activities, fundraising, and financial assets throughout Europe, the Middle East, and around the world. Adding Hezbollah to the EU terrorism list would also be an important step toward disarming its militia and restoring the rule of law in Lebanon. Hezbollah enjoys Iranian subsidies and Syrian arms supply. However, Hezbollah is allowed to operate openly, including fundraising and profitable businesses in Europe. This must stop immediately. The State Department and anti-terror arms of the United States and Arab states need to work with the Europeans to ban Hezbollah’s activities on the continent.

· Halt whatever it takes arms shipments and spare part supplies to Hezbollah’s TV and radio channels, telecommunications, businesses, and vehicles. These supplies originate in Europe, the U.S., Japan, and other Far Eastern locations, and are shipped through Beirut and the Gulf. The U.S. should initiate a drastic and concerted effort to stop military re-supply of Hezbollah. The United Nations should be urged to do a better job implementing Resolution 1701, which envisages disarmament of all Lebanese militias, including Hezbollah, and halts the arms supply to it, especially by Iran and Syria. The U.S. should also work with allies in the Middle East and Europe to halt non-military supplies to Hezbollah’s businesses and telecommunications operations.

Time to act is of the essence. Time to dismantle Iran and its proxies is a must…no matter what. This circus has got to stop right now….Enough is enough.

Your support towards this critical cause is always greatly appreciated

Respectfully,

Ziad K. Abdelnour

President

US Committee for a Free Lebanon

More Reflections on The Prisoner Release

In contrast to my blog entry criticizing the negotiations Israel carried out with Hezbollah to release the bodies of two slain Israeli soldiers in exchange for releasing several terrorists, here are some alternative perspectives from friends I respect:

From an Israeli jurist who asked to remain anonymous:

The problem you raise has no one answer.

Israel did the same transaction before.

Every soldier who goes to take part in war activities has to know that the Israeli government will do the utmost efforts to save him from prison or bring his body back to Israel. For a soldier it is a big relief to have this information.

One can say as you argue that the enemy will not hesitate to kill prisoners of war and yet get in exchange live terrorists. to this terrible dilemma I have no answer.

please remember that Jews in the Golla paid money to release Jews from prison, There is a lot of writing how much to pay in order to release. there were Jews in prison who refused to be liberated saying you are members of poor community or that if the Jewish people will release them this will cause in the future more blackmail.

From Jake Hayman, a British social entrepreneur and OneVoice London executive member:

I understand that it may not be politically the wisest thing to do in the short term, but I think it is noble beyond belief, to an extent that makes Israel actually come out looking stronger.

Hizbullah can ask how Israel can possibly defend itself when even the bodies of the dead mean so much to it, but they will also be lost as to how they can hope to defeat a place so magnaminous. Its about operating a higher moral standard that makes you ostensibly more vulnerable but shows a unity and strength that no one else can even come close to.

I’m not sure i can really articulate it, but I’d like to think I’d do the same and think it may be the best thing in the long run although it obviously sets a scary precedent in the short run and if they can’t live up to the standards they set now it causes a problem, but they set these standards a long time ago and have stuck by them since.

A third, more jaded view:

Nobody can stand to condemn this.  It would be political suicide.  Widows cannot get remarried under Jewish law if their fallen husbands’ bodies are not recuperated.  No one will dare deny them this, even for sound strategic reasons.

Human Conscience at the expense of strategic stupidity, or a major impending breakthrough in the workings? The Mystery of the "Release of Missing Israeli Captives"

The Israeli Government has just announced its agreement to procure the "release" Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, the two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hezbollah in the summer of 2006, in exchange for releasing several Lebanese prisoners including Samir Kuntar, the man who in 1979 murdered 3 Israelis in their home, including a 4-year old, and who caused the hiding mother to suffocate her 2-year-old daughter as she tried to quiet her crying.

What is the problem?

  • Sheikh Nasrallah ordered the attacks and incursions that brought about the Hezbollah-Israel war in 2006 with the stated goal of releasing Kuntar; Nasrallah outlined how he would capture Israeli soldiers to use as bargaining chips to bring about the release of Kuntar; now, 2 years after such devastating war and a month after having turned his guns on Lebanese people that supported the Lebanese government, he is being rewarded;
  • Goldwasser and Regev are apparently dead, so the Israeli government is inviting terrorists not just to try to capture Israeli soldiers, but to kill them if they so please, as Israel will be willing to exchange their bodies anyway, for precisely the objectives that terrorists wish to attain.

I feel horrible for the families that lost Ehud and Eldad. But besides the perverse and ominous incentives this deal creates, it is also going to turn Hezbollah’s Nasrallah from a formidable hero into a mythic legend in the eyes of many in the Arab world.

The timing is particularly regrettable because for the first time in 20+ years, Nasrallah had lost a little of his luster when he showed his color and attacked fellow Lebanese civilians.  This will restore his stature and more.

Unless there is a secret grand bargain in the making that, with Lebanese/Shaba farms, Syrian, and Palestinian negotiations will settle the Israeli-Arab conflict and distance Israel’s neighbors from Iran, today is as tragic a day for civil society as it is a cause for celebration for those who espouse violence as a tool for political leverage.

Below is the text of the Israeli government’s outline for the agreement on releasing the abducted soldiers in Lebanon:

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To Speak to The Enemy?

Gerald Seib wrote a straightforward, clear, and to-the-point column in the Wall Street Journal on the "would you meet with leaders of rogue states" question haunting Barack Obama - using Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s approach towards Syria as a very good example of how to do things.

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The Solution for Zimbabwe’s and Lebanon’s Armies

Lebanon’s army stood by as the Hezbollah militia rampaged downtown Beirut and attacked the government’s offices.  Its alleged rationale? The army was not going to take sides - as if "neutrality" is the call of the day when an armed militia tries to bully and dominate (if not yet overthrow) the democratically elected government.

Then equally embarrassing and stupefying but with a diametrically opposite logic all of its own, Maj. Gen. Martin Chedondo, a top Zimbabwe Army General, called on his soldiers to be "partisan" and be tools to Dictator Robert Mugabe as opposed to defending civic society:

Soldiers are not apolitical.

Only mercenaries are apolitical.  We have signed up and agreed to fight and protect the ruling party’s principles of defending the revolution.  If you have other thoughts, then you should remove that uniform. (emphasis added)

All of this comes as Mugabe’s forces have proceeded to intimidate the non-violent democratic efforts of the opposition party and civil society.

Maybe if you send Zimbabwe’s army to Lebanon, and Lebanon’s to Zimbabwe, you might actually get somewhere.

Iran Can Only Be Stopped in Iran

With regards to the Hezbollah-Lebanon-Doha debacle, and the article by Barry Rubin that I blogged about here, I received some interesting comments from Ami Isseroff, who runs MideastWeb and who I consider one of the most thoughtful and thought-provoking analysts on the Middle East:

There is no use comparing everything bad that happens to Munich. This was more like Abbyssinia - including the toothless sanctions. Iran can only be stopped in Iran. Nothing could be done in Lebanon. As for us [in Israel], we have Iran in the north and Iran in the south. There cannot be peace as long as Hamas exists. Your Gaza correspondents are right, and the Palestinian public opinion surveys confirm that Hamas have little support. But in elections, it doesn’t matter what people think. It matters who has the most guns and counts the votes. Read the book Point of No Return about Iran/Hezbollah by Ronen Bergman . …Iran cannot be negotiated with. They will not give up until they are confronted with overwhelming and decisive force. A blockade by sea and air at least,

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Why the World Should Worry About Lebanon…

Barry Rubin writes a scary article about the implications of the Doha Accords, and the capitulation on Lebanon’s future made on May 21st to Hezbollah, and by extension to Iran and Syria.  The capitulation came not only from the Sunni Arab world but also from France, which  Rubin notes, similarly ceded Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.  Like Lebanon now, the Czechs had hoped to rely on France’s help.  Another culprit is the UN, which blessed this agreement even though it contradicts prior UN resolutions requiring Hezbollah to disarm.  Many more parallels to appeasement of Hitler and Winston Churchill’s observations at the time are stark.  I hope Rubin is wrong about the situation, but I am afraid (as indicated earlier) that the writing is on the wall.

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Extremists Bring out Extremists in Lebanon

Al-Akhbar in Lebanon (which favors the Hezbollah opposition coalition) reports that the weakness of the Hariri Movement will create a void that will be filled by Salafi groups intent on waging Jihad to defend Sunni Islam against Shiia infidels.  While the source is suspect, it evinces a real trend towards further destabilization and tribalism, which will doom Lebanon and impact the region.

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