There are doubts whether Mahmoud Abbas will truly resign, as he has claimed he will. He has threatened to do so several times before, but he does seem exhausted by lack of momentum and a partner – on the Israeli side and among his own people. This could strengthen him as his people start to appreciate him more and the international community and Israel do more to strengthen his course for peaceful negotiations.
If he does resign, analysis ranges from:
· A return to a third intifadah as Fatah resorts to violent or non-violent popular resistance
· Disbandment of the Palestinian Authority amidst a power struggle within Palestinian leadership, with serious repercussions for Palestinians and Israelis
· A major democratic step as a key Palestinian leader institutes an orderly election from a democratically elected successor
· Release of Marwan Barghouti, who claims the leadership mantle
· Introspective evaluation about how Israelis, Palestinians and the international community take the “peace process” for granted
· Emboldened Hamas momentum, amidst lack of leadership within Fatah
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