Daniel Lubetzky

Results of an Opinion Poll: Hamas and the Truce, the Government, Security Campaigns, The Peace Process and Elections
Publication Date: 18 August 2008
Dr. Nader Said

Field work: 6-8 August 2008
Sample Size: 1200 Young Palestinians (16-25 years) in the West Bank & Gaza
Margin of error: + 3
Introduction:

This poll took place during the final days of fighting between the Executive Force of the Hamas-led government and the Helles family in Gaza. The violence followed a number of explosions that took place in various locations in Gaza City, leading to the killing of 6 Palestinians, most of them from Hamas’ military wing. The subsequent fighting led to the killing of 11 Palestinians, among them were two Hamas fighters and eight members of the Helles family. AWRAD’s field work had to be postponed during the early period of heavy fighting, as the movement in Gaza was highly restricted by Hamas. Some areas selected to be included in the poll were out of reach and dangerous. The reality on the ground in Gaza led to shifts in public opinion towards Hamas and Fateh at the same time, confirming the fact that both factions are losing in Gaza, most especially Hamas. 
Moreover, months of discussions and negotiations have produced no visible progress on key issues of the conflict such as Jerusalem, refugees and borders.  Furthermore, no signs of hope have followed the announcement of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s resignation.

Highlights:

This poll shows the following significant findings and trends:
·            President Abbas enjoys a 63% approval rate, 18 points higher than Haniya.
·            The popularity of Haniya and Hamas in both the West Bank and Gaza declined immediately after the Helles neighborhood fighting.
·            The positive evaluation of Haniya’s government decreased from 55% to 46%.
·            The positive evaluation of the Fayyad government increased from 46% to 55%.
·            Intent of voting for Fateh increased from 47% to 53%; intent of voting for Hamas decreased from 37% to 29%.
·            35% believe that Fateh is more capable in leading the Palestinian society; 17% believe that Hamas is more capable.
·            Abbas, Fayyad, Marwan Al Barghouti or Mustafa Barghouthi could defeat Haniya in a presidential election.
·            93% of Gazans say that economic conditions in the Strip have worsened or have not improved.
·            57% of Gazans feel that the security situation has deteriorated or stayed the same.
·            59% of West Bank respondents believe that the security agencies are fighting crime more effectively now than before.
·            65% say that they are witnessing less car theft now than before.
·            74% support carrying out a legislative election now.
·            92% experience no improvement in the quality of their lives after the Annapolis Meeting.
·            64% believe that the current negotiations will not lead to a Palestinian state.
·            Still, 63% support the continuation of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.
·            61% believe that Hamas should continue to commit to the truce.
·            52% support that Hamas prevents rockets attacks, while 42% are opposed.
With support from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI)
more information, please contact Team Leader – Dr. Nader Said, or visit our website: www.awrad.org.
AWRAD – Arab World for Research & Development
Ramallah – Gaza, Palestine

Aluf Benn provided an insightful report on what Olmert "offered’ Abbas as a way to at least insert a proposal that may give him a legacy.

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Thanks to Stacy Perman for a profile about PeaceWorks, KIND, and OneVoice in BusinessWeek yesterday.

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Khaled Diab wrote a nice article about OneVoice‘s Imagine 2018 project, asking Palestinian and Israeli kids to visualize what their lives will look like in 10 years IF a peace agreement is achieved between Israel and Palestine.

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I heard Ron Pundak (the CEO of the Peres Center) most recently attended a meeting of a coalition of NGOs working for peace, and he was struggling because he is fighting a particularly noxious type of cancer, currently going through treatment.

I have always secretly and quietly admired Ron, and have always felt we need more people like him.  In a world filled with well-meaning mediocrity down to cynical manipulation, Ron never succumbs and always applies the highest standards to what he does.  We seldom speak about people we admire with the candor they deserve, unless they are no longer with us, which means we lose the opportunity to do the right thing at the right time.  Hoping that Ron will get stronger as we need him to continue to lead, I want to share why I so deeply am impressed with this man:

• Because he is a Doer – he gets things done;
• Because he works for the mission, not for the institution; if they conflict, in everything I’ve ever seen from Ron, the mission always takes precedence; he eschews jealousies in favor of positive partnerships; he thinks long-term; he doesn’t lose sight of his ultimate purpose;
• Because he is humble and down-to-earth, never seeking praise or the limelight, always just doing the right work;
• Because he is a solid manager and coach;
• Because he is an extraordinary thinker;
• Because he is a mentsch – a real human being – who treats everyone with dignity and respect, Israeli or Palestinian, President or janitor.

Just like on the Palestinian side the call for "resistance" has been strengthening, Israeli views towards negotiations with Palestinians are hardening, according to the latest War and Peace Index conducted by Professor Tamar Hermann.  We’ve got our work cut out for us.

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Ehud Olmert died in the war and was buried in investigations. The two years under his governance since the war were not so bad. He knew how to run the Government, knew how to converse with world leaders, made some important security decisions and prepared the ground for peace. Soon, under Mofaz, Livni or Bibi, they will start to reminisce.

Nahum Barnea in Yediot Aharonoth

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Prime Minister Olmert has announced that he will resign after Kadima (his party) chooses a new leader in the primary elections that were negotiated under pressure with his rivals amidst the turmoil generated from investigations into his dealings.  The investigations center around a disgruntled donor who supported Olmert back when he was Mayor of Jerusalem, well prior to Olmert’s turn to support peace negotiations with Syria and Palestine. I’ve heard from smart insiders that the prime "witness"/corrupt donor – Talansky – is a hawkish marionette of Sheldon Adelson, who may be prodding this investigation in an effort to derail negotiations.  Upon hearing Olmert’s announcement, right-wing Knesset members immediately questioned Olmert’s legitimacy in his continued determination to pursue peace negotiations with Syria and the Palestinian Authority.

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Jerusalem Post Editor David Horovitz’s interview with Barack Obama is one of the most to-the-point expositions of Senator Barack Obama’s stances on Mideast issues.  Horovitz asked strong and straightforward questions, and Obama replied with earnest answers.  Anyone who truly cares about understanding the "real" Obama on these issues should read this interview.

One example:

Horovitz: You’ve said on this trip that you want to work for an Israeli-Palestinian accommodation from the minute you’re sworn in, so let me ask you about the thesis that there is no prospect of Palestinian moderation prevailing and enabling a peace process to really move forward until Iran’s nuclear drive has been thwarted – that so long as the Teheran-backed extremists of Hamas and so on feel that they are in the ascendant, the moderates can’t prevail and that the whole region is now in this kind of holding mode.

Obama: I think there is no doubt that there is a connection between Iran’s strengthening over the last couple of years, partly because some strategic errors have been made on the part of the West. And [the same goes for] the increasing boldness of Hizbullah and Hamas. But I don’t think that’s the only factor and criterion in the lack of progress.

Hamas’s victory in the [Palestinian Authority] election can partly be traced to a sense of frustration among the Palestinian people over how Fatah, over a relatively lengthy period of time, had failed to deliver basic services. I get a strong impression that [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas and [Prime Minister Salaam] Fayad are doing everything they can to address some of those systemic failures by the Palestinian Authority. The failures of Hamas in Gaza to deliver an improved quality of life for their people give pause to the Palestinians to think that pursuing that approach automatically assures greater benefits.

You know, look, I arrive at this with no illusions as to the difficulty in terms of what is required. But I think it’s important for us to keep working at it, frankly, because Israel’s security and peace in the region depend on it.

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Two articles recently posted on PeaceWorks and OneVoice and our efforts…

JEWCY.COM: Peace Through Pesto: Daniel Lubetzky Schools Us on Building Bridges and Empowering Moderates,  by Helen Jupiter, July 11, 2008

and

JERUSALEM POST, Don Quixote comes to Israel, Jul 24, 2008, by Heather Robinson

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