Daniel Lubetzky

As for the last 6 years OneVoice citizens, scholars, dignitaries and civic and religious leaders have engaged in the broadest process for conflict resolution among citizens, several lessons have become apparent that are instructive:

· Politicians need to say what needs to be said, to acknowledge both sides, to not just say what their constituents want to hear but what their constituents need to hear;

· The era of “constructive ambiguity” should be banished and replaced by a concrete and explicit outline of the deep interests and needs of each side and movement to forge a clear historic compromise; the more explicit the better because otherwise each side will sell its version of the agreement and fissures will come out;

· It is imperative for the leaders to find a way, if not in Annapolis then soon thereafter, where they SPEAK AS ONEVOICE, when the Palestinian and Israeli leadership can speak about BOTH SIDES’ needs and perspectives, to acknowledge the reality of a neighbor on the other side, to educate and prepare the public for a deal;

· Focused, sustained and ongoing effort is necessary to deepen the understanding and to establish trust; Professional Dedicated Full Time Negotiation Teams that put the National Interest above personality or vanity or partisan politics are imperative to make progress;

· A Third Party Mediator is ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY or else the parties will hang on to positions and endless Mideast bargaining; it is important to keep bringing back the parties to understand their INTERESTS and not just stick to fixed POSITIONS;

· These things take a lot of time; sometimes negotiations will get stuck on one word or one phrase, for hours or days; a systematic process needs to be followed to keep making progress and not circulate around and revisit issues aimlessly;

· Confidence Building Measures and tangible progress on the ground are important to keep the momentum going and to ensure the support from the people, as they see benefits to the peace process.

• Tony Blair’s efforts to create jobs for the Palestinian people are vital
• President Abbas’s commitment to dismantle underground militias AND to establish the rule of law are vital
• Prime Minister Olmert’s commitment to dismantle unauthorized settlements AND to freeze further settlement construction are vital;

How is OneVoice Connected To The Negotiations Process? It was BORN to rekindle it.

· OneVoice was founded in the aftermath of the breakdown of the Camp David negotiations to amplify the voice of the overwhelming majority of Palestinian and Israeli citizens who cherish an end to the conflict and recognize the only way to achieve it is through a two state solution

· OneVoice began last year a campaign to urge the Israeli and Palestinian Heads of State to immediately commence ongoing negotiations, uninterrupted until the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement, within a year of commencing the process

o That means that we urge the leaders to complete an agreement no later than Nov 27 2008

· Over 620,000 global citizens, including roughly 300,000 Israelis and 300,000 Palestinians, have thus far joined the movement as signatories to the OneVoice Mandate and/or the OneVoice Principles;

· When we began the campaign, many thought it was too risky and irresponsible to demand negotiations when no prospects for peace where in the horizon, let alone uninterrupted negotiations till the conclusion of an agreement, and let alone a comprehensive agreement

· OneVoice has had an opportunity to influence their leaders and share its message directly with them, including when it succeeded in getting President Abbas, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and President Peres together in Davos to hear the message from the people; President Abbas and Foreign Minister Livni, both during the Davos session and thereafter, acknowledged the impact and inspiration from seeing hundreds of their young speak to them with passion about their support for their leadership to end the conflict.

· A delegation of OneVoice activists, youth leaders, and executive directors from Gaza, Ramallah, Tel Aviv, New York and London will be available in Annapolis, Jerusalem, and New York City to represent and speak on behalf of the 620,000+ citizens that have signed on to the OneVoice Mandate demanding immediate negotiations, uninterrupted till the conclusion of a two state agreement, no later than a year from now. www.OneMillionVoices.org

• Hamas and Iran have vocally opposed Annapolis and deemed it a failure before it even started
• It is true that Hamas’s control of Gaza is a significant barrier to a two state solution
• A lot is at stake for Abbas; if no progress is made in Annapolis, he will be weakened; if no progress is made over the coming year, he may fall;
• But if Abbas and Olmert make progress over this year and begin implementing confidence building measures, they will weaken the grip of Hamas; if Abbas and Olmert achieve an agreement that meets the support of the people, they will be able to start implementing it in the West Bank, and such progress with create enormous pressure on Hamas to either accept the will of the Palestinian people or face being dislodged through elections or through force;
• The most recent show of force of citizens disenchanted with Hamas rule – with anywhere between 250,000 and half a million citizens – about a third of the entire population of Gaza – showing on the streets to march against Hamas’s abuse demonstrates that Hamas is losing its grip;
• Iran is obviously displeased with Annapolis and will try to undermine it with all its might; it is imperative for the leaders to not give Iran a veto power by freezing negotiations if any attacks are made.

• The goal is to ensure that Annapolis is not treated as a one-time photo opportunity but as what the people demand: a systematic, ongoing, uninterrupted process, with professional negotiation teams committed exclusively to the completion of a comprehensive agreement between the Israeli and Palestinian Heads of State for a  two state solution that will bring about a viable Palestinian State within the context of a permanent peace agreement with Israel.

Annapolis Predictions:

• The only thing one can predict in the Middle East is the unpredictability of events;
• many are trying to lower expectations about Annapolis, and it is said that the leaders were unable to draft a joint statement to read at the end, but a positive statement from President Bush could set the process on the right course, and what is imperative is that the leaders COMMIT TO AN ONGOING PROCESS AND TO TRY TO CRAFT AN AGREEMENT WITHIN A YEAR

· This is the first time in over 15 years where the vast majority of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, are participating in a regional effort to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; not since the Madrid peace process launched by President Bush Sr. have all these countries gathered together to address the issue; over 40 countries are being represented in Annapolis.

· This is the first time in 7 years that the Israeli and Palestinian Heads of State (or more specifically the Israeli Administration and the PLO Executive Committee) are hopefully re-launching formal steady and systematic negotiations

· The Israeli and Palestinian Heads of State are not alone this time:

     o Their people elected each of them with a broad mandate on a clear campaign platform for conflict resolution

     o Leaders of the region and the world are now by their side urging they take advantage of the Arab Peace Initiative and the Roadmap and make progress at once

     o Over 620,000 citizens have joined the OneVoice Mandate supporting the process, the largest number in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and representative of the overwhelming majorities (59% to 84% according to different polls over the last two years) who support negotiations to establish a two state solution

· Rare Window of Opportunity: the window is closing – while majorities on both sides still overwhelmingly support negotiations towards a two state solution, the numbers opposing are going up steadily, and will eventually surpass moderate voices if no tangible progress is made; we have two leaders and two peoples and the Arab region and the US government now recommitting themselves; the opportunity must be seized.  Failure is not an option.

[Ahmad Salameh used to be a student representative of Hamas while at Al Najar University.  During a jail term, he lost his fiance and he started becoming increasingly disenchanted with false promises of glory, eventually turning a new leaf, switching to Bir Zeit University, and joining OneVoice. He was a great activist at OV, until he opted to move to Dubai in search of job opportunities.  In between he was also a very creative entrepreneur, and created a business where messages of love and peace would be graffitied into the separation wall - for a $20 fee per message, which you could request via internet.  We recently corresponded and he permitted me to share his message.]

From: Ahmad Salameh
Sent: Monday, November 19, 2007 11:51 AM
To: Danieel
Subject: Dear

Dear Danieel:
how are you? how is everything wiith you???
i hope that you still remeber me as i do!
i’m in Dubai since last october! iam working in real state ! as a broker in [____] development!!!
if you wana too invest just mail me:-)
in all cases realy iam shocked from the first day that i arrived Dubai!!! most of people dont know anything about the conflict between Palestinian and Israelies!!!
i visted many universities and talk about the conflict and peace horizon!!
iam do care about what will happen after anabolies!! i hope they will success in the conference!
really iam thinking to go back to palestine to support all peace forces!! i think we are in a critical time that will design our future!!
nice to send to you my dear
Ahmad Salameh

One of my replies:

From: daniel
To: salameh.ahmad@
Subject: RE: Dear
Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 12:18:43 -0500

Ahmad, it is so nice to hear from you.  I have never been to Dubai but hear it is amazing.  One day I will visit. I hope you do go back to Palestine because we need your leadership and creativity and entrepreneurial spirit to get Palestine to grow.  I send you a big hug and please stay in touch.  Warmest, Daniel

One of his replies:

Thanks alot for your trust my frined but you know in palestine it is very hard to find a job! i spent many years as a voulnteer fpr peace and iam so happy to do that! BUT now after finishing the school i have to work to help my family and my self! you know life expences is too much!
I do care about the situation in palestine i think everybody has to support Mr.Abbas at this time! and we have to say END the war and give us the right to live in peace!
every time i add comments to internet articles spically Hamas websites and i say " please give your eyes the right to see the truthm please give your hearts the right to love, please giveyour souls the right to accept each others, please give OUR childrens the right to live in a peacfull futur!"
most times they ignore my comments but iam sure that every body responsible to tell the truth and to motivate all extreems to think twice before pushing all of us to the hill!!
Ahmad Salameh

[If thinking of using any of the blog entry below, please see important DISCLAIMER at the bottom of this email]

Here are stark examples of terrible biased polling.  This poll comes from Dr. Nabil Kukali from PCPO:

Up to which extent do you agree to or oppose each of the following items should there be in the near future a public referendum on a peace agreement with the Israelis?

West Bank and Gaza Strip:

01) Israel would keep 4 % of the West Bank and Gaza Strip area, which contains 80% of the Israeli settlements. As an exchange for that, Israel would offer the Palestinians 2% of its land adjacent to Gaza Strip. Would you support or oppose this deal?

Response Percent
     1. Support. 21.2
     2. Oppose.  72.2
     3. Don’t know.  6.6

Why the Above Question is Biased and Badly Framed: Of course any human being would oppose giving 4% and getting 2%, let alone giving land centrally located and getting something down south in arid land.  But that is not what is on the table!  And the principle of fair dealing has been accepted by most Israeli negotiators, that any land annexed by Israel would be compensated on a 1:1 basis, emphasizing a fair bargain. 

A fair way to frame that question (even with the poller’s facts, which I am not sure if are correct) would have been: Israel would evacuate from all settlements except for 3 settlement blocks along the 67 border that comprise 4% of the West Bank, which would be incorporated into Israel in exchange for land of equal size and value that would be given to Palestine.

When polled that way, 69% of Palestinians support that proposal!

NEXT:

East Jerusalem:

02) Living quarters inhabited by Arabs in East Jerusalem should be put under the Palestinian jurisdiction, the Jewish quarters to be annexed to Israel. Would you support or oppose this?

Response Percent
1. Support. 40.6
2. Oppose. 52.7
3. No opinion. 6.7

Why the Above Question is Biased and Badly Framed: Unlike professional pollers like K. Shikaki, who phrase things in neutral ways without trying to curry favor with any particular group, this poller takes a political position by stating the Jewish quarters will be "annexed" to Israel, making this be a concession from the Palestinians.  I am surprised that even with the above framing only 52% opposed it.

An unbiased way to phrase the question would be: Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem would be under Palestinian jurisdiction, while Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem would be under Israeli jurisdiction, and each State would have the right to establish its capital within its sovereign territory.  This phrasing traditionally used by Palestinian and Israeli proponents for Jerusalem to be the capital of both states is more factual and feasible.

Next:

The Old City of Jerusalem:

03) Upon dividing the Old City of Jerusalem between Israel and the Palestinians, Israel would keep the "Wailing Wall" (Western Wall), the Jewish and the Armenian quarters. A special arrangement would be made for the area of the Temple Mount (area of Al-Aqsa Mosque). Would you support or oppose this?

Response Percent
1. Support. 18.7
2. Oppose. 72.5
3. Don’t know. 8.8

Again, this poller phrases things in such a way that only ardent pacifists would accept something that seems unjust.  The way it is phrased, Israelis would get to take something quite well delineated, while Palestinians would get NOTHING because no arrangement has been delineated for Al Aqsa Mosque and Al Quds Al Sharif! 

But the fact is that any proposal that will work will need to give due deference and preference to the current status quo of religious leadership, which, little known to most, is already apportioned according to the religious leadership chosen by each side: Palestinian Muslim authorities already oversee Al Aqsa Mosque, while Israeli Jewish authorities oversee the Western Wall, and Armenians the Armenian churches, etc. 

If and when a two state agreement is reached, Palestinians will have sovereignty over Arab East Jerusalem, which includes Al Aqsa. This is a perfect example of how symbols are used to rile people against each other for no practical reason.  If people want to co-exist and respect each other, physical and religious edifices and symbols and institutions will not stand in the way.

Last Example:

The right of home-return:

05) Presuming that the Palestinian State would take up the Palestinian refugees. Israel, with other countries, would establish an international fund for the compensation of those refugees, who want to return under the Palestinian jurisdiction and can’t return to their original homeland in Israel. Would you support or oppose such a settlement of the Palestinian refugees problem?

Response Percent
1. Support. 23.5
2. Oppose. 68.2
3. Don’t know. 8.3

The Refugee Plight is a powerful emotional issue that will not be resolved unless the process for its resolution is perceived to be just.  This is an important distinction: no historic compromise can achieve perfect JUSTICE, but if the PROCESS is PERCEIVED AS FAIR, people will be far more likely to accept it. That is why framing things as above – "Can’t Return to Their Original Homeland in Israel" is manipulative. 

The Clinton Parameters laid out a proposal for how to resolve the refugees’ plight, same which President Arafat endorsed in Taba, that presents the only possible way to address this issue in a way that achieves the core interests of the Palestinian people for recognition of their plight and suffering and a fair process to handle the claims of the refugees, while being acceptable to their neighbors in Israel and their interest in preserving Israel as the single homeland to the Jewish people.

Above all the plight of the refugees would be recognized by the world and the Israeli people – it doesn’t mean Israel needs to "take blame", but for Palestinians it is important that it be acknowledged that whatever the circumstances, they resulted in a terrible injustice to the refugees.  This will go a far longer way to resolving this issue than most people realize. 

It would then be followed by a multi-pronged option for a) refugees to resettle in the new State of Palestine, b) refugees to be given citizenship where they live, c) refugees to be resettled in third countries, d) a limited number of family reunifications to be permitted for Palestinians with family in Israel (the big debate between Barak and Arafat was on what that number would be, which oscillated between 10,000 and 100,000 people), and e) a compensation fund will be created for refugees for any lost property and for their pain and suffering.

DISCLAIMER AND CLARIFICATION: ALL OF THE ABOVE LANGUAGE AND INFORMATION ARE NOT ONEVOICE POSITIONS.  They are thoughts and ruminations based on Daniel Lubetzky’s analysis of data and polls and negotiations positions and documents.  OneVoice as an international movement can only take positions on areas where there is consensus among the Israeli and Palestinian people, and while on many of the above areas there is far more hidden consensus than meets the eye, these issues are not issues on which OneVoice as a non-partisan, non-political movement has taken official positions.

From the OneVoice Teams:

It’s working.

The leaders are listening to their peoples’ demand for immediate negotiations towards a two-state-solution: for the first time in over 15 years, the Israeli and Palestinian Heads of State will be joined by the US and 20 Arab nations in a regional summit at Annapolis.

Those opposing a two state solution are vocally opposing Annapolis.

Our duty, as Palestinian, Israeli, and international citizens, is to support ongoing, uninterrupted negotiations until the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement.

Join us on November 27^th in Annapolis, Maryland as a small delegation of OneVoice activists from the Middle East, the US and Europe carries the torch on behalf of the 620,000+ signatories to the OneVoice Mandate, and on behalf of the overwhelming majorities of Israelis and Palestinians that support negotiations towards a two-state solution.  Your participation will help us send a message that the people will stand by their leaders if they take the requisite bold steps.

To join our team to Annapolis, contact Darya Shaikh (at +1 212 897 3985 x233 or darya@OneVoiceMovement.org) or visit www.OneMillionVoices.org where more information will be made available.

If you can’t join us in person, please sign on to the Mandate now.

If you already signed on, kindly forward this message to 5 friends and urge them to do the same.

With Warmth and Conviction,

The OneVoice Teams

I was struck by the following piece of data that Khaled, PeaceWorks Group’s CTO, just shared:

21.4% of international visitors to our site, www.OneMillionVoices.org, sign on to the OneVoice Mandate

18.2% of Israeli visitors sign on to the OV Mandate

and…

a whopping 38.4% of Palestinian visitors sign on to the OV Mandate!!!

The overwhelming majority of our 620,000+ signatories actually did not come from the web, but from grassroots signatory drives (on the streets, at town hall meetings, etc.).

I’ve always been under the assumption that the reason we don’t get that many people to sign up on the web is that people just are not inclined to sign up on the web to such issues.

But it now turns our that our problem is just getting enough traffic/visitors to learn about us, and once they do, an incredible number take the time to sign up.

Having 20% of your visitors sign up may not seem high, but by internet standards it is extraordinarily high – so much so that I asked the tech team to check if their data is indeed correct.  They used Google Analytics and IP mapping to evaluate how many visitors we are getting and cross-checking that with the number of online signatories.  They are firm that these numbers are correct in total (though there may be slight divergences between some IP addresses that someone may think are from one country vs. another, but the overall averages are correct).

So, I guess this means we need to work hard to get more Palestinians, Israelis and International supporters to visit the site.

It may also mean that when someone is criticizing OV and pointing attention to our site, they are helping us in fact, because such big proportion of unique new visitors is taking the step of accepting the principles of the mandate and giving us their email address so we can keep them informed and involved in future steps to amplify the voice of moderation!

POTENTIALLY BIG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT! Leaders listening to and following the will of their people, the OV people!!! Read the article below: it is, to the word, the language we demanded in the OneVoice Mandate that over half a million Palestinian and Israeli citizens have signed up to. It is the same language that many thought was too bold and risky to demand.

If indeed the leaders issue such statement, which is not yet confirmed, it will be worth all the challenges and uphill battles we’ve had to climb and surmount over the last year.

The challenges to the Heads of State are still very real and the gaps in the negotiations quite serious, but the potential is also enormous. We could have a historic breakthrough if they really commit not to stop negotiating until they crank out an agreement.

From The Guardian Newspaper in the UK

Israel and Abbas agree to peace talks

· Two sides will seek final deal within one year
· Syrians and Saudis also ready to participate
Ian Black in Jerusalem
Saturday November 17, 2007

Israel and the Palestinian Authority have agreed a pledge to negotiate "immediately and continuously" to reach a final peace agreement within a year in a joint declaration to be issued in 10 days at a key summit in the US.  – The Guardian